网址：http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html

    
    我根据第一个网址提到的一年前，已经有了关于警告中国有地震情况的研究描述，我找到了现在下面的文章。
    这是美国地球和空间科学知识网站在[地壳]部分该论文网址：http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006TC001987.shtml
    
    文章作者共六人，文章的有两个作者是中国四川的，是第三和第四作者。另外有两名美国的，一名英国的和一名瑞士的。文章太专业，大家可用翻译软件翻译一下。同时，这只是概述，不是全文，需要注册才能看到全文。有兴趣的可以去看看。重点我标成黑体，作为参考！
    
    TECTONICS, VOL. 26, TC4005, doi:10.1029/2006TC001987, 2007
    
    题目：Active tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau
     关于对西藏高原东边缘北川和Pengguan断层频繁地质活动的研究
    
    Alexander L. Densmore
    Institute of Hazard and Risk Research and Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
    
    Michael A. Ellis
    Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee, USA
    
    Yong Li
    National Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan, China 李勇 成都理工大学博士生导师
    
    Rongjun Zhou 周荣军 四川地震局工程师
    Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
    
    Gregory S. Hancock
    Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
    
    Nicholas Richardson
    Department of Earth Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
    
    Abstract概述
    
    The steep, high-relief eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone rapid Cenozoic cooling and denudation yet shows little evidence for large-magnitude shortening or accommodation generation in the foreland basin. We address this paradox by using a variety of geomorphic observations to place constraints on the kinematics and slip rates of several large faults that parallel the plateau margin. The Beichuan and Pengguan faults are active, dominantly dextral-slip structures that can be traced continuously for up to 200 km along the plateau margin. Both faults offset fluvial fill terraces that yield inheritance-corrected, cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages of <15 kyr, indicating latest Pleistocene activity. The Pengguan fault appears to have been active in the Holocene at two sites along strike. Latest Quaternary apparent throw rates on both faults are variable along strike but are typically <1 mm yr−1. Rates of strike-slip displacement are likely to be several times higher, probably ∼1–10 mm yr−1 but remain poorly constrained. Late Quaternary folding and dextral strike-slip has also occurred along the western margin of the Sichuan Basin, particularly associated with the present-day mountain front. These observations support models for the formation and maintenance of the eastern plateau margin that do not involve major upper crustal shortening. They also suggest that activity on the margin-parallel faults in eastern Tibet may represent a significant seismic hazard to the densely populated Sichuan Basin. 他们也指出在西藏东的平行地缘断层的运动对于人口密集的四川盆地呈现出一个显著的地震危险。
    
    Received 28 April 2006; accepted 2 April 2007; published 17 July 2007.
    2006年4月28 地壳 收到此文；2007年4月2号采纳；2007年7月17发表。
    
    关键词Keywords: Tibetan Plateau; geomorphology.
    
    索引Index Terms: 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics (8002); 8111 Tectonophysics: Continental tectonics: strike-slip and transform; 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology (8036); 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology: general (1625).